allAfrica.com: Burundi: Growing Insecurity Mars Peace (Page 1 of 1)

The delay in resolving issues of disarmament and how to integrate Burundi's former rebels into state institutions and security forces is threatening the ceasefire.

Burundi watchers are now worried that if the ceasefire is not nurtured, the political crisis could compromise the holding of free and fair elections in 2010 and the country's future stability.

The alleged continued recruitment of militia by the Palipehutu-FNL and the mounting insecurity in the capital, Bujumbura, through grenade attacks against opposition members of parliament, are threatening to break the ceasefire that saw the return of rebel leader, Agathon Rwasa, to Burundi after years of exile in Tanzania.

But a recent survey by the International Crisis Group (ICG) fingers the move in June by the Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), to put pressure on the constitutional court to authorise the replacement of 22 dissident MPs with loyal supporters of the party's leadership, as a major catalyst of the current crisis.

The ICG says that despite the CNDD-FDD and its allies managing to regain a two-thirds majority in the parliament, the move to pressure the court illustrates a clear desire to limit all checks on its power, including the media as well as human rights.

This ambition could lead to radicalisation of opposition parties that have been operating inside the country and they could be tempted to look for alliances with the Palipehutu-FNL, which was operating in the bush before the ceasefire agreement was signed.

Ironically, the fresh concern over the Burundi peace process comes at a time when the European Commission and United Nations High Commission for Refugees, signed a 2.5 million Euros ($3.5 million) agreement to help relocate hundreds of thousands of Burundian refugees who have been living in Tanzania for more than three decades.

It is part of the long-term strategy aimed at ending one of the most prolonged refugee situations in the world. Burundian refugees -- currently estimated at 218,000 -- have been living in Tanzania for the past 36 years.

Yet, besides the continued anxiety over a fresh stalemate over the peace process, the repatriation of refugees could be complicated by the survey done last year which revealed that about 80 per cent of the Burundi refugees had expressed their wish to stay on in Tanzania and apply for citizenship.

Since the beginning of March, over 35,000 adult refugees have applied for naturalisation in Tanzania, taking advantage of the earlier offer by the government to give them citizenship, this at a time when the lasting peace in Burundi was still a mirage.

The agreement, signed in June, had established three assembly areas for FNL rebels -- Rugazi, Kamina and Mahande -- to enable the committee to determine their positions and start the process of integrating them into the national defence outfit and security forces.

However, FNL disarmament has barely started and the absence of dialogue between the government and the main opposition parties could be harmful to the country's governance, the forthcoming elections and the future stability of the country.

Following Hussein Radjabu's removal from the head of the CNDD-FDD, the party split and the faction loyal to President Nkurunziza lost its majority in the National Assembly.

The November 2007 Cabinet reshuffle that brought members of Frodebu and Uprona into the government failed to provide a lasting solution to the crisis, with almost constant tension in parliament.

The ICG warns that participation of the Palipehutu-FNL in future elections could lead to the reintroduction of ethnic dimensions to the political discourse while unity within defence and security bodies remains fragile and the authority of the fundamental law and Constitutional Court is damaged.

In this context, lack of an internal political dialogue runs the risk of a premature loss of credibility and legitimacy for the polls, leading to violent clashes during the electoral campaign.

All parties must promote, in a consensual way, constitutional reforms necessary to the peace process and to set up an adequate framework for the organisation of free, credible and democratic elections in 2010.

Consultations to reach a national consensus on the makeup of the independent national electoral commission are, therefore, necessary. The absence of such talks has been the main cause of fear for a possible violent elections in two years time.

Apart from winning the confidence of competing forces, the electoral body is expected to draft a code of good conduct for political parties and security forces.

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