South Africa: Let Zuma Champion the Poor - It Willl Help Make East Africa Rich

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The East African (Nairobi)

COLUMN
28 September 2008
Posted to the web 30 September 2008

Charles Onyango-Obbo
Nairobi

When Thabo Mbeki announced he would resign as South African president, after he lost the political battle against ruling African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma, the country was not really rattled at first.

It was widely expected that there would be a smooth transition, and no significant changes in policy.

But then, a few days later, Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, along with 10 ministers, and three deputy ministers, resigned. When the name of the highly regarded Finance minister Trevor Manuel appeared on the list, the South African rand headed south, and investors took to the hills.

Markets calmed down when it emerged that Manuel's resignation had just been procedural, in order to give the new president a chance to pick his own Cabinet team. The ANC said it wanted Manuel in the Cabinet, and he confirmed he was glad to continue serving.

On September 12, High Court Judge Chris Nicholson set aside the corruption charges against Zuma, and suggested that Mbeki had improperly interfered with his prosecution. That sealed Mbeki's fate.

On the day of the ruling, hundreds of militant Zuma supporters gathered near the Pietermaritzburg court in Kwazulu-Natal and strongholds in Durban with all manner of crude weapons.

If the verdict had gone against Zuma, militants said South Africa would have gone up in flames.

Zuma, who has positioned himself as the champion of the poor who have missed out on the economic growth of the Mbeki years, is largely seen as a prisoner of this base and his Communist Party and trade union allies.

Thus, despite a great effort to project a new moderate image, Zuma is unlikely to continue all the Mbeki free-market policies if he wins elections to become president next year.

While the free market has not brought prosperity and jobs for many South Africans, and inequality is at scandalous levels, the socialist alternative favoured by the trade unions and the Communist Party have also failed almost everywhere else in the world.

Still, like other independent African countries before it, it is likely that South Africa will have to take the ruinous path of putting most of the economy under state control and fail, before the Zuma faction that now controls the ANC is discredited too.

Will a faltering South Africa be bad for Africa? Yes, and no. Yes, as it will just compound cynicism about the continent because, surely, if even South Africa cannot sort itself out, what can you expect from the poorer and worse-led African nations?

On the other hand, some of the more stable African countries with sensible economic policies could profit from South Africa's stumble.

When democracy arrived in South Africa, and the ANC government opened the country to the rest of the world, the rest of Africa almost ceased to exist. Every company thinking of establishing African headquarters took itself to South Africa.

The international media too shifted in large numbers from Nairobi and pitched camp in Johannesburg.

South Africa grew richer and became, according to its critics, an African imperial power of sorts that feeds off the fat of the continent but gives back little. That reputation was not helped by the recent killings of African immigrants.

South Africa's poison, therefore could be meat for countries like Kenya that used to be an African business hub as investors look to diversify to countries where there is greater consensus over economic policy. Or better, countries like Tanzania and Rwanda that have more stable (albeit ham-fisted) party systems.

Therefore, it's in East Africa's selfish regional interest, to encourage Zuma to push on.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is Nation Media Group's managing editor for convergence and new products.

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